201 |
201 |
202 .. math:: E[X|Y](y) = E[X|Y=y] |
202 .. math:: E[X|Y](y) = E[X|Y=y] |
203 |
203 |
204 Property: |
204 Property: |
205 |
205 |
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206 .. math:: E[g(Y)·X|Y] = g(Y)·E[X|Y] |
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207 |
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208 For invertible funtion :math:`h`: |
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209 |
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210 .. math:: E[X|h(Y)] = E[X|Y] |
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211 |
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212 Proof: |
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213 |
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214 .. math:: |
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215 |
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216 E[X|Y=y] = E[X|h(Y)=h(y)] |
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217 |
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218 Law of Iterated Expectations |
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219 ============================ |
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220 |
206 .. math:: E[E[X|Y]] = E[X] |
221 .. math:: E[E[X|Y]] = E[X] |
207 |
222 |
208 Proof (using total expectation theorem): |
223 Proof (using total expectation theorem): |
209 |
224 |
210 .. math:: |
225 .. math:: |
211 |
226 |
212 E[E[X|Y]] = ∑_y\ E[X|Y](y) = ∑_y\ E[X|Y=y] = E[X] |
227 E[E[X|Y]] = ∑_y\ E[X|Y](y) = ∑_y\ E[X|Y=y] = E[X] |
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228 |
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229 Generalisation of Law of Iterated Expectations: |
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230 |
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231 .. math:: E[E[X|Y,Z]|Y] = E[X|Y] |
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232 |
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233 Proof, for each :math:`y∈Y`: |
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234 |
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235 .. math:: |
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236 |
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237 E[X|Y=y] = ∑_x\ x·p_{X|Y}(x|Y=y) = ∑_x\ x·p_{X,Y}(x,y)/p_Y(y) |
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238 |
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239 = ∑_x\ x·∑_z\ p_{X,Y,Z}(x,y,z)/p_Y(y) |
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240 |
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241 = ∑_x\ x·∑_z\ p_{X|Y,Z}(x|Y=y,Z=z)·p_{Y,Z}(y,z)/p_Y(y) |
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242 |
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243 = ∑_x\ x·∑_z\ p_{X|Y,Z}(x|Y=y,Z=z)·p_{Z|Y}(z|Y=y) |
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244 |
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245 = ∑_x\ ∑_z\ x·p_{X|Y,Z}(x|Y=y,Z=z)·p_{Z|Y}(z|Y=y) |
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246 |
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247 = ∑_z\ ∑_x\ x·p_{X|Y,Z}(x|Y=y,Z=z)·p_{Z|Y}(z|Y=y) |
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248 |
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249 = ∑_z\ p_{Z|Y}(z|Y=y)·∑_x\ x·p_{X|Y,Z}(x|Y=y,Z=z) |
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250 |
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251 = ∑_z\ p_{Z|Y}(z|Y=y)·E[X|Y,Z] = E[E[X|Y,Z]|Y=y] |
213 |
252 |
214 Conditional variance |
253 Conditional variance |
215 ==================== |
254 ==================== |
216 |
255 |
217 :def:`Conditional variance` of :math:`X` on :math:`Y` is r.v.: |
256 :def:`Conditional variance` of :math:`X` on :math:`Y` is r.v.: |